The first phase of Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza has drawn a collective sigh of relief from European leaders. After two years of slaughter, the ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, the Israeli military’s partial withdrawal from Gaza and humanitarian access to the territory offer hope – and unfortunately, an excuse for Europe to continue doing nothing.
When it comes to the war in Gaza, unlike Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European governments have shown their worst colours. They are divided, and their political splits have led to policy paralysis. But worse than sitting on the sidelines hand-wringing, European governments and EU institutions in Brussels can be accused of complicity in Israel’s war crimes. They have been unwilling to exert any pressure on the perpetrators, while continuing economic, political and military cooperation with them. Israel’s violations of international law have triggered mass outrage among European people, but EU governments and institutions have lost touch with their own citizens, especially younger people.
Just five years ago, the EU championed the climate agenda, responding to the demands of many young Europeans. Those same young people are shocked by their leaders’ inaction over Gaza. It took two years of a war that many consider a genocide for France, Britain, Portugal, Belgium, Luxembourg and Malta to recognise the Palestinian state, following Spain, Ireland, Norway and Slovenia’s lead last year.
And only last month did the European Commission propose the first timid punitive measures towards Israel, including the sanctioning of extremist ministers and violent settlers, and the suspension of EU trade preferences. However, neither of these steps have been implemented. The first would require unanimous agreement among the 27 EU governments – unlikely given the strong opposition by a vocal minority of countries such as Hungary and the Czech Republic. The second could be passed by a qualified majority, but given Germany and Italy’s opposition, this more meaningful move has also remained a dead letter.
In June the EU found that Israel had violated its human rights obligations under the EU-Israel association agreement. But on Monday, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, paused efforts to suspend the agreement’s trade privileges (an approach likely to be embraced as well by EU heads of government when they meet for a summit on Thursday). The contrast with the EU’s 19 packages of sanctions on Russia could not be more stark. On Ukraine, Europe has stood tall in defence of democracy and international law; on Gaza, it has shattered its credibility in the eyes of the world.
Now, Trump’s plan has provided Europe with an escape route. It has enabled European governments and institutions to be seen to embrace Washington’s demands, much as they have done – albeit uneasily – on Ukraine, defence and trade. It has allowed them to trumpet a new dawn of peace in the Middle East, shifting attention from punitive measures towards Israel to European support for the US plan.
Europe has been able to retreat into its comfort zone of playing second fiddle to the US. Indeed, while Arab and Muslim majority countries are expected to do the heavy lifting in an eventual international stabilisation force in Gaza, European governments are lining up to chip in with humanitarian assistance, reconstruction, governance support and border monitoring. Talk of pressure on Israel has all but disappeared. Furthermore, Israel insists that it will allow Europeans to play a role in Gaza’s reconstruction only if the EU’s proposed punitive measures are dropped. As Europe goes down this route, its leaders congratulate themselves for nudging beyond passivity, yet they have fallen back into very familiar patterns of behaviour.
All this is understandable. Trump’s plan is the only one available and certainly the only plan with any chance, however small, of success. This is not because of the inherent merit of the plan, which is problematic at best. It is rather because the US is the only player with the necessary leverage on Israel to make its government change course. Supporting US diplomacy is therefore not just convenient for Europeans, it makes sense, too.
However, moving along with the implementation of the plan after its first phase is easier said than done. There are plenty of hurdles and catch-22s. Israel is unlikely to completely withdraw from Gaza unless Hamas disarms. But Hamas will not disarm completely unless Israel withdraws.
The plan aims to transition towards Palestinian self-government, initially featuring a role for Palestinian technocrats and then a “reformed” Palestinian Authority. But a reformed authority means radically different things to the US, Europe, Arab countries and the Palestinians themselves. Israel rejects the authority altogether and, with it, the idea of a Palestinian state.
The Israeli government has been brutally clear in repeating its unchanged aim – the destruction of Hamas – and has studiously avoided talking about an end to the war. It has not fully respected the ceasefire: since it came into effect, dozens of Palestinian civilians have been killed by Israel, while others have been shot by Hamas. Unless the international community, and especially the US and Europe, exert much greater pressure on Israel, the odds are that mass violence will resume, and Gaza – as well as the West Bank – will remain under occupation. In short, the remaining points of the plan will not see the light of day.
This is why Europeans are wrong to view support for Trump’s plan and pressure on Israel as separate or contradictory. It is politically convenient but practically incorrect to see the former as belonging to the paradigm of peace and the latter to one of continuing war. This is not the time for the EU and its member states to feel let off the hook, or to abandon the first timid moves towards punitive measures and conditionality. Pressure exerted on Israel is the only way to overcome political hurdles, and if this is achieved, Europe can finally make a small – but positive, at least – contribution to peace in the region.