UK could rejoin EU on ‘short’ timeline if it wanted, former EU Brexit negotiator says
Lisa O’Carroll
The UK could rejoin the EU on a “short” timeline because of the remaining alignment on regulation, Michel Barnier, the EU’s former Brexit negotiator has said.
It could also join a new European security and defence council, which he is promotion to allow more formal cooperation with non EU European countries such as the UK and Norway, he said.
“It is so important to be together, not to be a subcontractor to China or the US,” Barnier said talking about the imperative to have economic security in Europe.
He declined to put a timeline on potential timetable for a potential re-entry into the EU but said: “It could be short.”
He predicted that “it would take much longer” for the UK government “to decide to rejoin” than it would to become a member again.
Speaking at the UK in a Changing Europe Brexit anniversary conference, Barnier, restated his warning that there would be “no cherrypicking” for the UK.
It could get back into the EU quickly but there would be “no indivisibility of the four freedoms” of the single market which covers free movement of labour, capital, services and goods.
“We will take no risk about this,” he said.
However, he also hinted at the possibility of the UK joining an outer circle group working with important allies within Europe such as Norway and Ukraine on issues such as security.
“I proposed creating a European Council for Security and Defence alongside the current institution, in the spirit of the coalition of the willing, working well and working efficiently to support Ukraine with British government and many others.
I think in that script it could be clever, useful to create what I call European Council for security of defence on the side of institution, open to some countries who play a key role outside the EU, not yet in the EU.”
Key events
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Closing summary
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Brexit hurt UK, Europe and even US, security expert says
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Taliban held talks with EU over returning failed asylum-seekers, despite fierce criticism
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Europe hit by extreme temperatures – map
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Europe’s media look on in bemusement at post-Brexit ‘revolving door’ of UK prime ministers
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UK could rejoin EU on ‘short’ timeline if it wanted, former EU Brexit negotiator says
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The story of the Brexit campaign, told by those with a front-row seat
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Future Labour PM will have plenty political space to move closer to EU if they pivot away from ‘Red Wall’ in northern England
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Economy, not migration, could help Leave voters change mind on EU membership, polling guru says
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Germany’s Merz says ‘failure is not an option’ as he wants to push through pension system reform
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40 people drowned in France since weekend as country sees extreme temperatures, PM says
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EU should integrate Ukraine in defence union, commissioner says
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Former Brexit negotiator urges likely new British PM to ditch reset in relations
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Three in five gen Z Britons would like new vote to rejoin EU, poll finds
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Brexit bellwether constituencies revisited 10 years on
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Czechia’s Pavel hits back at ‘unprecedented’ decision to exclude him from Nato summit
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Morning opening: Ten years on
Closing summary
Jakub Krupa
… and on that note, it’s a wrap for today!
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EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator said the UK could rejoin the bloc on a “short” timeline because it largely continued to be aligned with its regulation (14:08), ten years on from its decision to leave the union.
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His comments come on the tenth anniversary of the 2016 Brexit referendum and amid another government crisis in Britain, noted on the continent with bemusement and mockery (14:45).
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A polling guru said the economy, not immigration, could be the key factor in persuading former Leave voters to back a potential decision to rejoin the EU (13:06).
Elsewhere,
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Forty people have drowned while swimming in unsupervised areas across France in recent days, the prime minister has said, as Europe battles record-breaking heatwave across the continent.
Meanwhile,
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Czech president Petr Pavel has filed a complaint against the Czech government and its decision to exclude him from the delegation for next month’s Nato summit in Ankara (10:24).
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EU defence commissioner Andrius Kubilius said the EU needs to integrate Ukraine in a future defence union, with first proposals on the European defence market expected next week (11:35).
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German chancellor Friedrich Merz pledged to push through a proposed reform of the country’s creaking pension system that would include raising the retirement age gradually in line with life expectancy, declaring that “failure is not an option.” (12:22).
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at [email protected].
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
Brexit hurt UK, Europe and even US, security expert says
Lisa O’Carroll
Brexit has “hurt” the UK, Europe but also the US, the head of the leading UK security and defence thinktank has said.
Rachel Ellehuus from the Royal United Services Institute, an American national and defence expert, said both the UK and Europe had a “power” problem they needed to address.
“I think for many years there was this sense that: ‘oh the Brits made their bed, they need to lie in it, and you know we’re kind of still together, and look at us, how great we are. I mean, it’s just ridiculous, whether it’s growth, regulatory burden, construction costs, inflation; Brexit has hurt us all, including the US,” she said.
“Europe, and I include the UK in that moniker, has a power problem, has a dynamism problem. Its relative power is declining compared to the US, compared to Asia,” she told the UK in a Changing Europe conference on Brexit in London.
She said decline in competitiveness and fragmentation of markets was eroding European’s fire power and she would like to see the UK moving closer to the EU, with a little bit of cooperation on defence.
Taliban held talks with EU over returning failed asylum-seekers, despite fierce criticism
Meanwhile, Taliban government officials held talks with the EU in Brussels about returning failed asylum-seekers to Afghanistan, in a visit fiercely criticised by rights activists, AFP reported.
The European Commission invited a five-person delegation for discussions under a push to crack down on irregular migration and boost deportations – although the EU does not formally recognise the Taliban administration.
The Guardian’s European community affairs correspondent Ashifa Kassam reported this morning that the commission was are facing fierce criticism over its plans, with rights campaigners and MEPs warning that the meeting risks normalising a regime that has banned girls from school beyond the sixth grade and sought to erase women from public life, while its ranks include two leaders accused of crimes against humanity.
Europe hit by extreme temperatures – map
If you are wondering just how bad the heatwave is in large parts of Europe today, take a look at this map:
We are covering the heatwave in detail over on our weather blog today:
Europe’s media look on in bemusement at post-Brexit ‘revolving door’ of UK prime ministers
Michael Savage
Media editor
Marking the 10th anniversary of the referendum, let’s take a look at how Europe’s media look on in bemusement at post-Brexit “revolving door” of UK prime ministers.
Michael Savage has the latest.
“In Germany, Downing Street was likened to a transit station, given the regular comings and goings of different prime ministers and staff. Meanwhile, a bemused Spanish newspaper concluded No 10 seemed to have been fitted with a revolving door.”
UK could rejoin EU on ‘short’ timeline if it wanted, former EU Brexit negotiator says
Lisa O’Carroll
The UK could rejoin the EU on a “short” timeline because of the remaining alignment on regulation, Michel Barnier, the EU’s former Brexit negotiator has said.
It could also join a new European security and defence council, which he is promotion to allow more formal cooperation with non EU European countries such as the UK and Norway, he said.
“It is so important to be together, not to be a subcontractor to China or the US,” Barnier said talking about the imperative to have economic security in Europe.
He declined to put a timeline on potential timetable for a potential re-entry into the EU but said: “It could be short.”
He predicted that “it would take much longer” for the UK government “to decide to rejoin” than it would to become a member again.
Speaking at the UK in a Changing Europe Brexit anniversary conference, Barnier, restated his warning that there would be “no cherrypicking” for the UK.
It could get back into the EU quickly but there would be “no indivisibility of the four freedoms” of the single market which covers free movement of labour, capital, services and goods.
“We will take no risk about this,” he said.
However, he also hinted at the possibility of the UK joining an outer circle group working with important allies within Europe such as Norway and Ukraine on issues such as security.
“I proposed creating a European Council for Security and Defence alongside the current institution, in the spirit of the coalition of the willing, working well and working efficiently to support Ukraine with British government and many others.
I think in that script it could be clever, useful to create what I call European Council for security of defence on the side of institution, open to some countries who play a key role outside the EU, not yet in the EU.”
The story of the Brexit campaign, told by those with a front-row seat
If you want to relive Brexit – although it’s beyond me why on earth would you want to do that to yourself – you can read our ‘front row’ oral history of the campaign and what happened next.
Proceed at your own risk.
Future Labour PM will have plenty political space to move closer to EU if they pivot away from ‘Red Wall’ in northern England
Lisa O’Carroll
Whoever becomes the next UK prime minister will have plenty of political space to move closer to Europe, polling expert John Curtice has said.
His comments come as many domestically and in Europe begin to question whether the potential future British prime minister will move further away or closer to the EU than Keir Starmer.
But to exploit that space the Labour party have to stop worrying about the “Red Wall” constituents and appeal to its middle classes again, said Curtice.
“Labour’s vote is something like three-quarters to four-fifths pro-Rejoin [the EU] vote.
Labour has always had much more potential political opportunity to be able to go further in terms of our relationship with the European Union, but it does mean that the Labour Party has to end its hang up about the ‘Red Wall.’”
“Red Wall” is a phrase to describe a set of constituencies in northern England, north Wales and the Midlands that traditionally voted Labour, but often supported Brexit and supported the Conservative party in 2019.
But, Curtice continued, “they thought they had to reconnect with the “Red Wall” to be able to win the election.”
“The intention of the Labour party between 2020 and 2024 to try and reconnect with working-class lead voters by not talking about Brexit actually failed,” he said.
Economy, not migration, could help Leave voters change mind on EU membership, polling guru says
Lisa O’Carroll
Back to the Brexit anniversary, the economy and not immigration is the influential factor in persuading Leave voters they should rejoin the EU, John Curtice, the polling expert at Strathclyde University, has said.
He said in the “minority” of leave voters who have changed their mind, it is the perception of the damage Brexit has wreaked that gives pause for thought.
Those who voted Brexit to reduce immigration have not changed their mind typically.
“If you think that Brexit has been economically damaging, you voted to leave, then there is a reason behind poverty that you might have changed your mind. But if you think immigration, it doesn’t make any difference,” Curtice said at the UK in a Changing Europe conference marking the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum.
But he said the main reason why the numbers of those who would support rejoining the EU has grown so much in recent years is simple demographics and the reaching of voting age by a new generation.
“Actually the reason why public opinion has shifted from what was, 52:48 in favour of Brexit no being roughly 60, 40 rejoin is partly to do with the fact that leave voters are less likely to say they would vote to stay out, than remain voters … say rejoin.
There is a bit of a gut [feeling] there, but we have to remember now that there are 10 years worth of our population who were too young to vote in 2016.
And if you actually look at the perceptions of the people who did not vote in 2016, whether they were too young or not, they, and their perceptions of the consequences of Brexit, including on the economy, look much closer to the views of remain voters than those of leave voters.”
Germany’s Merz says ‘failure is not an option’ as he wants to push through pension system reform
Elsewhere, German chancellor Friedrich Merz pledged to push through a proposed reform of the country’s creaking pension system that would include raising the retirement age gradually in line with life expectancy, declaring that “failure is not an option,” AP reported.
Merz’s coalition of centre-right and centre-left parties took office just over a year ago with pledges to reform and turn around Germany’s sluggish economy, Europe’s biggest. It has since become deeply unpopular, in part because of perceptions that it has squabbled but so far achieved little.
AP noted that Germany’s economy returned to modest growth last year after shrinking for two years in a row. The government expects underwhelming growth of 0.5% this year, a figure that has been pushed down by the fallout from the war in Iran .
The country of 83.5 million people is already faced increasing competition from Chinese companies, higher energy costs following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and issues including US president Donald Trump ‘s tariffs and trade threats.
On top of that, it has deeper problems such as high production costs, lagging private investment and increasingly costly health and pension systems, caused by an aging population.
40 people drowned in France since weekend as country sees extreme temperatures, PM says
Meanwhile, we are also getting a dramatic update from France, with the country’s prime minister Sébastien Lecornu saying that forty people have drowned while swimming in unsupervised areas in France since the weekend.
Much of France is under severe heat alert and set to experience temperatures around 40C on Tuesday, Meteo France said, with temperatures of up to 43C expected in some parts of western France.
France experienced its hottest night from Monday to Tuesday since measurements began in 1947, the national weather agency said.
More on that on our heatwave blog here:
EU should integrate Ukraine in defence union, commissioner says
In other news, EU defence commissioner Andrius Kubilius said the EU needs to integrate Ukraine in a future defence union.
“Thanks to transformation of its war doctrine, Ukraine is prevailing” defending itself from Russia, Kubilius said in a speech in Brussels, quoted by Reuters.
“It would be difficult to understand if we in Europe would not take it as our vital interest to integrate the military force of Ukraine into our European defence architecture,” he said.
The European Commission will likely present first proposals for a further integration of the European defence market next week “with detailed analysis and follow up steps“, the commissioner said, speaking at the European Defence and Security summit.
“Later this year we will present a proposal to change defence procurement rules. And other market rules,” he added.
Former Brexit negotiator urges likely new British PM to ditch reset in relations
Lisa O’Carroll
Meanwhile, former Brexit negotiatior David Frost has said Andy Burnham, if made prime minister, should ditch much of Keir Starmer’s reset with the EU.
Specifically he should scrap plans including the food and drink deal designed to reduce red tape for British exporters to the EU.
Speaking at a UK in a Changing Europe conference, he said that he thought Keir Starmer and his team did not think through their “reset” properly and pursuing agreements that would force the UK to be a rule taker rather than a rule maker was a mistake.
“I don’t think proponents of the reset have thought it thought properly,” he said of the outgoing UK leadership. “They didn’t think hard enough about choices and the processes,” he said.
“I guess my advice to Andy Burnham would be if you must continue with the reset … then don’t get into submitting to new laws,” he said adding “don’t proceed with the SPS, ETS, electricity” in a reference to the Sanitary and Phyto Sanitary or food and drink deal, the Emissions Trading System (alignment on charging for carbon emissions involved in manufacturing).
These he said “are the elements that involve EU law” adding that if Burnham “must proceed with Erasmus and other things” on the cultural side including youth mobility “try and persuade us that this is good use of our resources”.
His remarks come a day after the EU postponed a scheduled 22 July summit with the UK government to agree on SPS, ETS and youth mobility.
Talks on youth mobility were until recently deadlocked over the UK’s refusal to accede to the EU’s demand that EU citizens should be able to study in UK universities on the basis of home tuition fees.
Frost said he was “sceptical it was the right moment” to do a youth mobility agreement and “giving concessions to Europeans that we don’t give to others” such as tuition fees.
Three in five gen Z Britons would like new vote to rejoin EU, poll finds
Jamie Grierson
A generation of young Britons who were locked out of the 2016 EU referendum because of their age now believe that Brexit has failed, with a majority demanding a fresh vote to rejoin the EU, exclusive polling shows.
Gen Z Britons show deep dissatisfaction with the UK’s departure from the EU, according to new polling of 18- to 28-year-olds conducted by the thinktank More in Common and shared with the Guardian.
The data reveals that 60% of this cohort would vote to rejoin the bloc if given the opportunity, compared with 9% who would vote to stay out.
When filtering the results to focus solely on those likely to cast a ballot in a hypothetical second referendum, the margin becomes a landslide, with the pro-EU Remain/Rejoin camp capturing 81% of the vote against just 19% for remaining outside.
Brexit bellwether constituencies revisited 10 years on
If you want to know how people on the ground, in bellwether constituencies, feel about Brexit ten years on, we have something for you.
But let me just say: yeah, they think exactly what you think they think.
“Absolute nightmare, shambles, and still is to this day,” says Tony Rutherford, a decade after he voted leave to save the British fishing industry.
In May 2016, David Milne, the chair of the Scottish White Fish Producers Association, leaned against an EU funding sign on the quayside of Fraserburgh harbour and said he hoped Brexit would allow his industry to “manage our own destiny”, but he now feels their livelihoods were “bartered away”.
For Milne, “control” was the main appeal of Brexit.
We are bitter about it because we haven’t gained any.
Czechia’s Pavel hits back at ‘unprecedented’ decision to exclude him from Nato summit
As expected, Czech president Petr Pavel has filed a complaint against the government’s decision to exclude him from the Czech delegation for next month’s Nato summit in Ankara.
The move comes after the Czech prime minister, Andrej Babiš, said yesterday that the decision to exclude the president was “purely practical,” as he dismissed “an unnecessary” dispute with the president (Europe Live, Monday).
The pair is at loggerheads over Czechia’s defence policy and spending commitments, with the government currently spending less than 2% GDP on defence, way below Nato’s targets, and other political issues. Pavel beat Babiš in the 2023 presidential election.
In a formal response to the government’s decision this morning, Pavel said it was an “unprecedented and extremely unfortunate step,” and a dangerous break from the past convention that historically saw Czechia represented at Nato summits by the country’s president ever since it joined in 1999.
He said that when he attended three Nato summits in the past, he always followed the government’s position, and he would do the same this year.
But “months of public bickering about who will fly where have been seen as an inability of the highest state officials to reach an agreement among themselves,” and “at a time when Nato is dealing with the greatest security threats in the alliance’s history, I consider this an irresponsible approach to our citizens and our allies.”
“This must end,” he said.
Pavel said that he repeatedly put forward compromise proposals that would see him attend the informal part of the summit – a policy discussion – while leaving the budget talks to the government. But he said he received no response or counterproposal from Babiš.
“It is my duty not only to exercise the powers of the President to the fullest extent, but also to defend them. Not for my own sake. But for the sake of all the presidents who will come after me,” he said.
The complaint has now been received by the Constitutional Court, and it will consider how to progress the case tomorrow.
Morning opening: Ten years on
Jakub Krupa
Good morning on the tenth anniversary of Brexit.
Tenth!
Time flies when you are having fun, I guess.
There will be plenty of commentary, but here, at the Guardian, we have gone back to the people who spoke to us 10 years ago with their first reaction after the vote.
Here are their comments. Spoiler alert: it also includes, erm, me.
I will bring you some of the best stories and analyses from our Brexit: ten years ago catalogue throughout the day.
But we also have plenty of other topics to cover in contemporary European politics.
Leaders of the Visegrad Four – the regional grouping of Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia – are meeting in Hungary to revive the group after years of disagreements under Viktor Orbán’s rule.
We are also expecting to hear from the Czech president Petr Pavel this morning as he is due to respond to the Czech government’s decision to block him from attending the Nato summit in Ankara next month.
And there are also continuing heatwaves across the continent, with Jamie Grierson covering the latest for the UK and parts of Europe.
Lots to cover today.
It’s Tuesday, 23 June 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.